Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden is leading in two new polls from one of the most pivotal swing states in the 2020 presidential election: Pennsylvania.
The final polls of the state from Monmouth University and Morning Consult have Biden ahead of President Donald Trump. https://www.vox.com/2020/11/2/21545863/pennsylvania-final-polls-2020-biden-trump
A Monmouth University poll — taken from October 28 to November 1 and released Monday morning — has Biden with a 5 to 7 percentage point lead over Trump among likely voters. The spread is the result of Monmouth pollsters modeling two turnout scenarios: the poll found Biden had 51 percent support compared to Trump’s 44 percent among likely Pennsylvania voters in a high turnout scenario; and 50 percent support for Biden compared to 45 percent for Trump in a low turnout model. The low turnout model took into account a large number of ballots being rejected, which remains a possibility due to a recent Supreme Court decision. If ballots aren’t rejected, given current turnout, the high turnout scenario is more likely.
Morning Consult’s poll, taken from October 22 to 31, did not differentiate turnout. It found Biden leading Trump by 9 percentage points among likely voters, 52 to 43 percent.
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